Saturday, 3 January 2009

Expectations and what left behind...

Another post about 2009 predictions,
First lets see what we left behind in 2008...

2008 was great for rich client platforms, Flex had made the progress i couldn't for so far, JavaFX (at last) had a full runtime and an editor, Silverlight had some more components and moving to Eclipse for having a stable editor. Internet connections getting faster, mobile connections follow. Me and my colleague Yunus had a presentation in Eclipse Democamp in Istanbul in November, few days later S&S Media Group contacted us for publishing an article on our democamp presentation and material in both german and english magazines (which caused me to spend my Paris trip in front of my laptop). Even such incidents show how the industry moving to rich clients. If you are interested in giving a speech in any of the conference or seminars the most favourite topics are rich clients and OSGI.
Personally I will remember 2008 for owning a PS3 and iphone. Unlike my beloved Wii, PS3 is so strong so connected and so sharp with graphics. This year i moved my guitar hero platform from wii too PS3 so now i have smoother and sharper graphics and I can buy online content. I still love my wii specially when more friends around but my ps3 is more capable, from games to playing multimedia content and downloading demos. Finally IPhone was the best matched after my WM based Asus stopped working. Windows Mobile had so many professional and also alot free applications but the memory managemnt was awful, services stop responding and ask for reboot often (what i mean with services are phone, sms, gprs). Connecting to gprs is like connecting to in ternet through a dial up ISP with windows 95 pc 10 years ago. Coonections drops, not stable, and needs configurations. The iphone is smooth, I don't even realise I am connected to GPRS or WiFi. I must admit the apps (for example navigation apps) are not as professional but still I can survive most of the time. There are a lot variety applications, and the services never crash because Apple has very strict memory management rules. If you had read the sdk tutorials, it is very clear that Apple does not want the phone to crash so if your app is eating memory the OS will kill it soon. Well here is the weak point, no application (except for the ones provided by apple such as phone, sms, mail) are multitasking. So you can't login to MSN and let it run in the background. I real feel the lack of multitasking support for the 3rd party apps, except for that i dont care the other weakness like no mms no video, I really wonder if anyone really cares those.

Ok, enough of 2008... lets see what is waiting us in 2009;

Rich clients will get richer! Flex 4 is on the way, Silverlight and JavaFx getting stronger. This will be the year to move on rich clients. I thing 2009 will be the migration, and 2010 will be the suffering year for html&ajax related technologies. Running virtual machines for such rich clients will bring compability and peace between browsers for developers. Rich clients will cause connection speeds to go faster and faster connections will make clients richer. This two way demand will create a snowball effect and the move to rich clients might be faster than anyone can expect.
Java 7 is on the way, EJB 3.1 is following, spring is offering more with 3rd version, this year should be exciting for Java world. I think this year JavaOne will be colourful.
Microsoft is same, except of the firt with eclipse. I feel this flirt can become a passionate love story. However i am worried that Microsoft can not really accept that they are not the only one controlling the future about the platform. I think Microsoft is a bit jealous and controlling to share Eclipse with community which may result in a bloody divorce in long term.
OSGI will become more popular this year. All major application servers are moving OSGI, even Nokia is building the phone OS on OSGI. Equinox engine of Eclipse had become so sucessful that OSGI is getting accepted widely in every platform. I think this year will be the rise of OSGI in software projects which will result the OSGI have the golden years in following years.
Google is introducing new technologies, tools and platforms everyday but this year they may slow down a bit and focus on android. Android looks promising but needs better hardware devices else only excited developers will tend to buy Android devices.
Apple may probably introduce a newer version of iphone with an unexpected feature. Apple is so good on this and while Android and others trying to catch up they may just introduce something unexpected. Remember first ipods, meanwhile or rivals had color screens, video capabilities, ipods win the war with touchwheels, slim designs and after with multitouch screens. Apple usually dont focus on popular features which his rivals working on, they come up with unexpected features and hunt the rivals than add those popular common features in time as they did in ipod with colour screens and video playing, or as they did in iphone with gps and 3g (which they did not rush to add while or rivals had). So we may expect an unexpected update on iphone.

Well, we'll see... Happy new year...